Jumps Selections Saturday

Nicholls / Olly Murphy in good form and should be worth following today.

I have gone over their comments (positive ones) and have looked at the pedigrees of all the runners and filtered accordingly.

I’m not backing blind as I have removed a few where there have been negatives. Doesn’t mean they can’t win though!

Hopefully I’m on the right ones …

Ascot:

13:15 – Eglantine Du Seuil

‘She ran a cracker on her latest start for us six weeks ago in a competitive mares’ handicap hurdle at Cheltenham where she came from off the pace to be second to The White Mouse. This is a new trip for her and though I can’t be sure she stays three miles she was keeping on well at the finish at Cheltenham. I’m hopeful Eglantine Du Seuil can run tidily getting 6 lbs from two smart mares Magic of Light and Roksana.’

13:50 – Danny Kirwan

‘He has had one or two issue that have interrupted his career but is now in as good a place as we’ve had him for a long time and it was great to see him show what he can do with a fluent victory over this trip at Ascot two months ago. Next time at Cheltenham he didn’t stay three miles. Danny has been working with Politologue and will be much happier back at this trip on testing ground that he relishes. I am expecting a big run from him in a competitive race.’

14:25 – Favorito Buck’s

‘He ran his best race for a while last time in first time blinkers at Ascot where he led all the way until he was collared in the last 100 yards. The handicapper has played fair by leaving him on the same mark and should be in the mix again though he wouldn’t want to the ground be too deep.’

15:35 – Politologue

‘He is bouncing ahead of this Grade 1 Chase which comes at an ideal time ahead of his bid to retain his title in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Politologue has been in seriously good shape since his brilliant success in the Tingle Creek at Sandown and has thrived since we changed his training routine just over a year ago. I’d say he is as well as I’ve ever had him.’

Taunton

14:45 – Brewin’upastorm

‘Brewin’upastorm reverts back to hurdles after some disappointing runs in good company over fences. Hopefully, he will gain a bit of confidence back over timber and the trip should suit. He’s won around the track before and hopefully the ground won’t be too testing. He’s got to give a lot of weight away but he is the class horse in the field.’

15:25 – Follow That

‘Follow That ran creditably in a couple of bumpers but hasn’t fired over hurdles so far. He has his first run in a handicap and although he lacks the experience, he’ll handle the soft ground well and should run respectable.’

6 points staked!

Not for the faint hearted!

I have the firepower (Bank) to  take the ups and downs. Since the thread is only 2 weeks old (-2.1 points) I suggest doing your own research or just backing those that are in the top 3 of the market.

Summary:

13:15 – Eglantine Du Seuil, 1pt win (6.0)
13:50 – Danny Kirwan, 1pt win (9.8)
14:25 – Favorito Buck’s, 1pt win (13.5)
14:45 – Brewin’upastorm 1pt win (5.3)
15:25 – Follow That, 1pt win (8.6)
15:35 – Politologue, 1pt win (2.6)

Top 3 in market:

14:45 – Brewin’upastorm 1pt win (5.3)
15:25 – Follow That, 1pt win (8.6)
15:35 – Politologue, 1pt win (2.6)

Maiden/Novice Stakes Races (26th September)

12:55 Haydock

I am hoping the favourite can get beat here (previous winner, carrying a penalty) and have gone for Turandot (by Frankel). I like the O’Meara/Tudhope combination and think this is good value against the favourite.

13:15 Newmarket

Hidden Breeze (by Dark Angel) is my idea of the winner. Gosden in decent form and the combination with Frankie is a good one. I am a little concerned that Quilted (first time out for Roger Charlton) could be something special as a sister to Quadrilateral so will cover my bet with her. Indeed Quadrilateral won first time out so Quilted has to rate as a danger.

13:30 Haydock

Hugo Palmer stable on fire and he runs Military Mission here (by Mastercraftsman). The Doyler booked to take the ride. This ought to win!

Good luck!

New Approach has a Novice… (GOODWOOD)

For Simon & Ed Crisford…

17:45, Goodwood: Aaddeey

Aaddeey by New Approach who won the Derby so 10f is no problem New Approach is by Galileo the king DADDY and Sire of Sires. (I love this line!)  Street Cry on the Dam side who won plenty of races over 10f so again no problem.

Simon & Ed can get them ready First Time Out (FTO) and are in decent form with numerous winners over the last few weeks including at 14/1, 11/1 etc.

What really caught my eye is the jockey booking.

William Buick takes the ride. Why is this important? Buick has a lot of experience riding stacks of first First Time Out winners for Godolphin. He knows how to handle inexperienced horses and his record is second to none.

I have backed it for small stakes at 13/1.  Currently 8.2 on Betfair.  If I see more money for it near the off, I will increase my stake. If it drifts I will back some on the place and hope for the best.

Good luck.

Richard Fahey and a Novice

Richard Fahey has an interesting runner at York today:

‘Failed to beat a rival at Doncaster on debut but seemed to show much improved form when third in a listed contest at Sandown in July. A reproducion of that effort should see him go close.’

13:00, York Mcmanaman

What really caught my eye is that Oisin Murphy is booked to take the ride. Murphy has ridden 7 times for Fahey and has had 4 winners…

By Dark Angel, this colt was highly tried in a listed event last time which has not worked out too well but is dropping in class and that should be enough to make him competitive here.

The favourite is trained by Adrian Nichols who has not had a winner for a nearly a month. Mamba Wamba has also been highly tried so on form must be respected. She could be good enough to WIN but I like the chances of Fahey’s especially at the odds.

Betting strategy

Ideally, I want to see Fahey’s backed in the market. Currently he is 2nd Favourite which is fine. I want him to stay 2nd Favourite (or better) so any drift will put me off especially if money comes for any of the other runners which is entirely possible.

I am putting half my stake on now (5/1 at 8:30am) and will re-evaluate near the off as to whether I get further involved. For example, I might have some on the place instead If it drifts out to 7/1 or 8/1 etc.

Best of luck, as always.

2/3yo Maiden and Novice Selections (August 31st)

12:45: Summer Power [Pivotal] (TD Easterby) (1/21: ExP: 1.66) 0.61 A/E, -£18.25 (-86.9%)
13:10: Zumaaty [Tamayuz] (Archie Watson) (5/19: ExP: 3.6) 1.36 A/E, -£0.30 (-1.6%)
13:50: Bahrain Pride [Kodiac] (S Crisford) (2/12 ExP: 3.33) 0.60 A/E, -£4.40 (-36.7%)
15:00: Sir Benedict [Dandy Man] (Ian Williams) (1/4 ExP: 1.6) 2.40 A/E, -£1.12 (-28.0%)
15:!5: Popple [Mayson] (Tony Carroll) (2/49 ExP: 4) 0.50 A/E, -£31.00 (-63.3%)
16:05 Poetica [Lope De Vega] (M Johnston) (9/77: 10) 0.88 A/E, -£4.50 (-5.8%)

16:45: Envega [Lope De Vega] (R Beckett) (6/33 ExP: 7) 0.82 A/E, -£18.04 (-54.7%)
16:10: The Kodi Kid [Kodia Bear] / Tricolore [Twilight Son] (Andrew Balding (7/32 ExP: 5)  1.35 A/E, +£16.70 (52.3%) : & Marco Botti (4/18 ExP: 2 1.98 A/E, Profit of £19.38 (129.2%))

Staking: Those fancied in the market (Top 3 of betting): 1 point win (i.e £20). Those unfancied in the market (i.e outside top 3 or double figure odds) 0.5 point win i.e £10.

Best Bets [Filtered]

13:10 Zumaaty
15:15 Popple (Small bet)
16:10 The Kodi Kid / Tricolore
16:45: Envega

All in form trainers within Age range.

FREE Horse Racing Tips For Great Yarmouth (June 29th)

Just the one bet today. Can’t see much value about and don’t want to risk current profit in these tricky races …

14:00 Yarmouth: Parent’s Prayer

Trainer Watson is in good form and runs this filly by Kingman. The form from her debut has worked out so we believe she should go close here and she is currently Favourite!

FREE Horse Racing Tips For Hamilton, Windsor and Newmarket (June 28th)

13:45 Hamilton: Al Khabeer

David O’Meara is in great form and has a good record at Hamilton with his fancied runners so Al Khabeer is worth a bet. Jockey booking (Tudhope) is very positive and he usually gets the job done.

15:35 Windsor: Dance Fever

Trainer Clive Cox has hit form in the last two days and Dance Fever is an outstanding bet. He is 3-3 and is progressive. He will step up to a mile today and will have no problems. We’re very keen on his chances.

We have combined 2 short priced Favourites from Newmarket that we think should win into a Lucky 15 with the above selections and will stake 1 point on it.

Here it is:

12:45 Newmarket: Rideson @ 5/4
13:00 Newmarket: Eastern World @ 4/5
13:45 Hamilton: Al Khabeer @ 85/40
15:35: Windsor Dance Fever @ 7/2

Good luck and happy punting!

FREE Horse Racing Tips For Newmarket And Newcastle (June 27th)

Today we can’t see much value about so we’ve decided to do multiples on the most likely short priced favourites. Hopefully we can turn a profit if not we won’t be too badly burned. We will risk a 2 point stake on the multiple bet with Best Odds Guaranteed.

14:05 Newmarket: Boccaccio

Godolphin clean up in Newmarket Handicaps (40% strike rate!) and Boccaccio is undefeated over the 7 furlongs as well so plenty of appeal. He’ll be short price.

15:00 Newcastle: Aloe Vera

Trainer Beckett is in hot form and runs this classy filly Aloe Vera here. She is unbeaten and highly tried so this is an ideal opportunity for her to pick up another win.

15:15 Newmarket: Thunderous

We really like the sire of this horse Night of Thunder and this one is unbeaten in 3 starts. Ryan Moore takes the ride which is very interesting to say the least!

16:25 Newmarket: Pure Beauty

Pure Beauty won her Maiden last time out here at Newmarket. She should improve and get the mile no problem. Frankie booked which is very interesting.

We will likely back Aloe Vera in a single the rest in multiples.

Good luck!

FREE Horse Racing Tips For Newmarket, Lingfield and Doncaster (June 26th)

Edit: : We’re no longer backing Additional in the 9pm @ Lingfield non-runners have ruined the price!

Instead we will back Magical Morning in the 14:55 @ Doncaster for Gosden and Frankie!

13:50 Doncaster Almqvist

We find it very interesting that trainer Mark Johnston is running this horse at Doncaster with Joe Fanning booked to ride. It could mean that it is primed for a big run so we think its worth a bet.

We have taken the early price of 8/1 on Betfair. (currently 8.2)

14:10 Newmarket: Bonnyrigg

Trainer Andrew Balding is in good form and has a good record with his 2yo’s at Newmarket so we expect Bonnyrigg to run well here.

15:15 Newmarket: Ejtilaab

Ejtilaab is taking on Her Majesty’s horse Evening Sun here and we think he can cause an upset. Williams does well at the course and it looks to us like a close match up so we’re prepared to take the risk to get the best value.

16:20 Newmarket: Bodyline

Sir Mark Prescott is in great form sending out multiple winners and we believe this could be his next. Jockey Morris is booked and can usually get the job done to justify the short price!

Good luck!