I am hoping the favourite can get beat here (previous winner, carrying a penalty) and have gone for Turandot (by Frankel). I like the O’Meara/Tudhope combination and think this is good value against the favourite.
Hidden Breeze (by Dark Angel) is my idea of the winner. Gosden in decent form and the combination with Frankie is a good one. I am a little concerned that Quilted (first time out for Roger Charlton) could be something special as a sister to Quadrilateral so will cover my bet with her. Indeed Quadrilateral won first time out so Quilted has to rate as a danger.
Hugo Palmer stable on fire and he runs Military Mission here (by Mastercraftsman). The Doyler booked to take the ride. This ought to win!
For Simon & Ed Crisford…
17:45, Goodwood: Aaddeey
Aaddeey by New Approach who won the Derby so 10f is no problem New Approach is by Galileo the king DADDY and Sire of Sires. (I love this line!) Street Cry on the Dam side who won plenty of races over 10f so again no problem.
Simon & Ed can get them ready First Time Out (FTO) and are in decent form with numerous winners over the last few weeks including at 14/1, 11/1 etc.
What really caught my eye is the jockey booking.
William Buick takes the ride. Why is this important? Buick has a lot of experience riding stacks of first First Time Out winners for Godolphin. He knows how to handle inexperienced horses and his record is second to none.
I have backed it for small stakes at 13/1. Currently 8.2 on Betfair. If I see more money for it near the off, I will increase my stake. If it drifts I will back some on the place and hope for the best.
Richard Fahey has an interesting runner at York today:
‘Failed to beat a rival at Doncaster on debut but seemed to show much improved form when third in a listed contest at Sandown in July. A reproducion of that effort should see him go close.’
13:00, York Mcmanaman
What really caught my eye is that Oisin Murphy is booked to take the ride. Murphy has ridden 7 times for Fahey and has had 4 winners…
By Dark Angel, this colt was highly tried in a listed event last time which has not worked out too well but is dropping in class and that should be enough to make him competitive here.
The favourite is trained by Adrian Nichols who has not had a winner for a nearly a month. Mamba Wamba has also been highly tried so on form must be respected. She could be good enough to WIN but I like the chances of Fahey’s especially at the odds.
Ideally, I want to see Fahey’s backed in the market. Currently he is 2nd Favourite which is fine. I want him to stay 2nd Favourite (or better) so any drift will put me off especially if money comes for any of the other runners which is entirely possible.
I am putting half my stake on now (5/1 at 8:30am) and will re-evaluate near the off as to whether I get further involved. For example, I might have some on the place instead If it drifts out to 7/1 or 8/1 etc.
Best of luck, as always.
12:45: Summer Power [Pivotal] (TD Easterby) (1/21: ExP: 1.66) 0.61 A/E, -£18.25 (-86.9%)
13:10: Zumaaty [Tamayuz] (Archie Watson) (5/19: ExP: 3.6) 1.36 A/E, -£0.30 (-1.6%)
13:50: Bahrain Pride [Kodiac] (S Crisford) (2/12 ExP: 3.33) 0.60 A/E, -£4.40 (-36.7%)
15:00: Sir Benedict [Dandy Man] (Ian Williams) (1/4 ExP: 1.6) 2.40 A/E, -£1.12 (-28.0%)
15:!5: Popple [Mayson] (Tony Carroll) (2/49 ExP: 4) 0.50 A/E, -£31.00 (-63.3%)
16:05 Poetica [Lope De Vega] (M Johnston) (9/77: 10) 0.88 A/E, -£4.50 (-5.8%)
16:45: Envega [Lope De Vega] (R Beckett) (6/33 ExP: 7) 0.82 A/E, -£18.04 (-54.7%)
16:10: The Kodi Kid [Kodia Bear] / Tricolore [Twilight Son] (Andrew Balding (7/32 ExP: 5) 1.35 A/E, +£16.70 (52.3%) : & Marco Botti (4/18 ExP: 2 1.98 A/E, Profit of £19.38 (129.2%))
Staking: Those fancied in the market (Top 3 of betting): 1 point win (i.e £20). Those unfancied in the market (i.e outside top 3 or double figure odds) 0.5 point win i.e £10.
Best Bets [Filtered]
15:15 Popple (Small bet)
16:10 The Kodi Kid / Tricolore
All in form trainers within Age range.
Just the one bet today. Can’t see much value about and don’t want to risk current profit in these tricky races …
14:00 Yarmouth: Parent’s Prayer
Trainer Watson is in good form and runs this filly by Kingman. The form from her debut has worked out so we believe she should go close here and she is currently Favourite!
13:45 Hamilton: Al Khabeer
David O’Meara is in great form and has a good record at Hamilton with his fancied runners so Al Khabeer is worth a bet. Jockey booking (Tudhope) is very positive and he usually gets the job done.
15:35 Windsor: Dance Fever
Trainer Clive Cox has hit form in the last two days and Dance Fever is an outstanding bet. He is 3-3 and is progressive. He will step up to a mile today and will have no problems. We’re very keen on his chances.
We have combined 2 short priced Favourites from Newmarket that we think should win into a Lucky 15 with the above selections and will stake 1 point on it.
Here it is:
12:45 Newmarket: Rideson @ 5/4
13:00 Newmarket: Eastern World @ 4/5
13:45 Hamilton: Al Khabeer @ 85/40
15:35: Windsor Dance Fever @ 7/2
Good luck and happy punting!
Today we can’t see much value about so we’ve decided to do multiples on the most likely short priced favourites. Hopefully we can turn a profit if not we won’t be too badly burned. We will risk a 2 point stake on the multiple bet with Best Odds Guaranteed.
14:05 Newmarket: Boccaccio
Godolphin clean up in Newmarket Handicaps (40% strike rate!) and Boccaccio is undefeated over the 7 furlongs as well so plenty of appeal. He’ll be short price.
15:00 Newcastle: Aloe Vera
Trainer Beckett is in hot form and runs this classy filly Aloe Vera here. She is unbeaten and highly tried so this is an ideal opportunity for her to pick up another win.
15:15 Newmarket: Thunderous
We really like the sire of this horse Night of Thunder and this one is unbeaten in 3 starts. Ryan Moore takes the ride which is very interesting to say the least!
16:25 Newmarket: Pure Beauty
Pure Beauty won her Maiden last time out here at Newmarket. She should improve and get the mile no problem. Frankie booked which is very interesting.
We will likely back Aloe Vera in a single the rest in multiples.
Edit: : We’re no longer backing Additional in the 9pm @ Lingfield non-runners have ruined the price!
Instead we will back Magical Morning in the 14:55 @ Doncaster for Gosden and Frankie!
13:50 Doncaster Almqvist
We find it very interesting that trainer Mark Johnston is running this horse at Doncaster with Joe Fanning booked to ride. It could mean that it is primed for a big run so we think its worth a bet.
We have taken the early price of 8/1 on Betfair. (currently 8.2)
14:10 Newmarket: Bonnyrigg
Trainer Andrew Balding is in good form and has a good record with his 2yo’s at Newmarket so we expect Bonnyrigg to run well here.
15:15 Newmarket: Ejtilaab
Ejtilaab is taking on Her Majesty’s horse Evening Sun here and we think he can cause an upset. Williams does well at the course and it looks to us like a close match up so we’re prepared to take the risk to get the best value.
16:20 Newmarket: Bodyline
Sir Mark Prescott is in great form sending out multiple winners and we believe this could be his next. Jockey Morris is booked and can usually get the job done to justify the short price!
Today looks tricky .We’ve picked out a few at short prices …
14:45 Haydock: Returnofthemac
Trainer David O’Meara is in great form and does well in Handicap’s at Haydock and runs Returnofthemac here who is looking to defy a penalty. We think he should be able to follow up and jockey Tudhope booked which is a big positive. He usually gets the job done so that only adds confidence.
17:25 Leicester: Aristocratic Lady
This 3yo+ Maiden looks a poor race and we think Aristocratic Lady should win this at a short price. By Invincible Spirit she ran well last time out and a repeat of that should be enough.
Sporting Life says:
‘Ran well on both starts in spring 2019 most recently when 5L second in a 7f novice contest at Lingfield (good). Winner that day is now rated 91 and she holds strong claims of breaking her maiden in this contest.’
17:40 Bath: Gordonstoun
Trainer Paul Cole is in excellent form and does well with his 2yo’s so we think Gordonstown who finished third on his debut should be better off by the experience and get off the mark here.
Some really competitive racing at Haydock today. Let’s hope for a few winners!
14:10 Haydock: Devious Company
Trainer Tom Dascombe and jockey Richard Kingscote have an unbelievable record at Haydock. They have plenty of winners here and today run Devious Company who won over course and distance a few weeks ago. We think he should go close again and is worth a bet.
15:40 Haydock: Angel Power
Roger Varian is still a very much in form stable and and run Angel Power here for owners King Power. We’ve checked the stats and Varian seems to have a good record when his horses have won last time out. Jockey De Sousa (SDS) booked which is a big positive. Should go close in our opinion.
16:45 Haydock: Summer House
Godolphin and trainer Bin Suoor have a decent record in Novices at Haydock and Summer House looks like she could improve for her recent win and defy the penalty. Worth a bet we think as she seems fancied in the market (currently 2.82).
Good luck and enjoy the racing!